Table 4.1. Node descriptions and conditional probability tables for the example fire and fish influence diagram. These are contrived values and should not be taken seriously.
Decision Node: Fuel treatment
Levels (3):
no treatment
treat entire watershed
treat upslopes outside riparian areas
Chance Node 1: Natural Fire Ignition
Levels (3):
rare
infrequent
frequent
Chance Node 2: Wildfire in Watershed
Levels (3):
no fires
low intensity fire
high intensity fire
Conditional Probability Matrix:
|
Fuel Treatment |
Fire Ignition |
Fire in Watershed |
||
|
no fires |
low intensity |
high intensity |
||
|
none |
rare |
0.90 |
0.02 |
0.08 |
|
|
infrequent |
0.50 |
0.20 |
0.30 |
|
|
frequent |
0.10 |
0.60 |
0.30 |
|
entire watershed |
rare |
0.92 |
0.06 |
0.02 |
|
|
infrequent |
0.60 |
0.30 |
0.10 |
|
|
frequent |
0.28 |
0.58 |
0.14 |
|
upslopes only |
rare |
0.92 |
0.05 |
0.03 |
|
|
infrequent |
0.13 |
0.52 |
0.35 |
|
|
frequent |
0.28 |
0.54 |
0.18 |
Chance Node 3: Wildfire in Riparian Area
Levels (3):
no fires
low intensity fire
high intensity fire
Conditional Probability Matrix:
|
Fuel Treatment |
Fire in Watershed |
Fire in Riparian Area |
||
|
no fires |
low intensity |
high intensity |
||
|
none |
none |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
low intensity |
0.40 |
0.60 |
0 |
|
|
high intensity |
0 |
0.10 |
0.90 |
|
entire watershed |
none |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
low intensity |
0.40 |
0.60 |
0 |
|
|
high intensity |
0 |
0.40 |
0.60 |
|
upslopes only |
none |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
low intensity |
0.40 |
0.48 |
0.12 |
|
|
high intensity |
0 |
0.20 |
0.80 |
Chance Node 4: Flooding Regime
Levels (2):
no change
increased flooding
Conditional Probability Matrix:
|
Fire in Watershed |
Flooding regime |
|
|
no change |
increased frequency |
|
|
none |
1 |
0 |
|
low intensity |
0.8 |
0.2 |
|
high intensity |
0.3 |
0.7 |
Chance Node 5: Instream Fish Habitat
Levels (4):
improving
no change
minor loss of habitat
major loss of habitat
Conditional Probability Matrix:
|
Flooding |
Fire in Riparian |
Fuel Treatment |
Instream Fish Habitat |
|||
|
improving |
no change |
minor loss |
major loss |
|||
|
no change |
none |
none |
0.10 |
0.80 |
0.09 |
0.01 |
|
|
|
watershed |
0.05 |
0.60 |
0.30 |
0.05 |
|
|
|
upslopes |
0.10 |
0.70 |
0.18 |
0.02 |
|
|
low intensity |
none |
0.10 |
0.70 |
0.17 |
0.03 |
|
|
|
watershed |
0.05 |
0.53 |
0.37 |
0.05 |
|
|
|
upslopes |
0.05 |
0.60 |
0.33 |
0.02 |
|
|
high intensity |
none |
0.05 |
0.50 |
0.30 |
0.15 |
|
|
|
watershed |
0 |
0.40 |
0.35 |
0.25 |
|
|
|
upslopes |
0 |
0.40 |
0.40 |
0.20 |
|
increased |
none |
none |
0.05 |
0.70 |
0.20 |
0.05 |
|
frequency |
|
watershed |
0 |
0.50 |
0.40 |
0.10 |
|
|
|
upslopes |
0 |
0.60 |
0.35 |
0.05 |
|
|
low intensity |
none |
0.05 |
0.50 |
0.40 |
0.05 |
|
|
|
watershed |
0 |
0.30 |
0.50 |
0.20 |
|
|
|
upslopes |
0 |
0.30 |
0.60 |
0.10 |
|
|
high intensity |
none |
0 |
0.15 |
0.50 |
0.35 |
|
|
|
watershed |
0 |
0.05 |
0.45 |
0.50 |
|
|
|
upslopes |
0 |
0.10 |
0.50 |
0.40 |
Chance Node 6: Fish Population
Levels (3):
increasing
stable
decreasing
Conditional Probability Matrix:
|
Instream Fish Habitat |
Fish Population |
||
|
increasing |
stable |
decreasing |
|
|
improving |
0.60 |
0.35 |
0.05 |
|
no change |
0.15 |
0.70 |
0.15 |
|
minor loss |
0.10 |
0.50 |
0.40 |
|
major loss |
0.02 |
0.30 |
0.68 |
Utility Node: Utility is the sum of utilities for Wildfire in Watershed, Instream Fish Habitat, and Fish Population. Individual utilities as follows:
|
Node |
Outcome |
Utility |
|
Wildfire in Watershed |
no fires |
10 |
|
|
low intensity |
3 |
|
|
high intensity |
-10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Instream Fish Habitat |
improving |
10 |
|
|
no change |
0 |
|
|
minor loss |
-5 |
|
|
major loss |
-10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Fish Population |
increasing |
10 |
|
|
stable |
5 |
|
|
decreasing |
-10 |